In this article written for SOFREP, Loren Schofield analysis from a Red Team point of view the different possible scenaries where terrorists might attack America again.
As an 18Fox, it is part of the job to understand the enemy and learn everything you can about him so you can try to predict what they will do. Part of this is playing Red Team during Course of Action (COA) development, and some of it comes into play during the planning for the mission.
In preparing the Conop and planning, one of the 18F’s duties is to come up with the enemies Most Likely COA (MLCOA), and Most Dangerous COA (MDCOA). It could focus on a specific target that you are going after, the TTPs that have been historically utilized, location, personal knowledge and numerous other factors. MLCOA is usually not as dangerous as the MDCOA which, by its nature, usually takes the “worst case” option.
He called me when he had the first draft of the article and we had a very interesting discussion. He wanted to know my opinion about his conclusion, and see if I could add some more given my experience in the Middle East, with counter-terrorism and as a Red Teamer.
I agree with his assessment and I mentioned to him other scenarios as well, which he factored in into his article. He wrote:
I would like to consider these two COAs on what an attack in the United States by Islamic Militants would look like. The point of this article is not to say they are coming right now, or that any of these attacks will certainly take place. This is simply an analysis of what a potential attack would look like, period.
My own assessment runs more along the lines of his MDCOA given the nature of the current terrorists. These are not old school, give-me-a-rifle-I-will-die-for-religion terrorists. No. We are seeing a new breed. Current groups are more organized, better funded, technologically savvy and trained. They have a different, more extreme agenda.
Yes, Loren's MDCOA is scary, but not as scary as my own MDCOA.
Go read the article, it is very intersting.