Again, our friends at the Red Team Journal are hinting about the changing landscape and how red teams are increasingly being used as tools for alternative analysis on subjects beyond the real of digital operations.
Get ready, red teamers. In 2013, be prepared to refactor your assumptions in a variety of potentially surprising ways. Remember, though, that red teaming is not forecasting; red teaming is the art of challenging assumptions and exploring the possible. A good red teamer may not expect any given event to occur, but he or she should weigh the possibility that it might and red team accordingly.
Given this, two ideas are worth keeping in mind.
- Perception and misperception are often as good as reality. They can shift in unexpected ways in response to unexpected events, and they can snowball.
- As a result, what is now in stasis need not stay in stasis.
The trap to avoid, then, is employing only “business as usual” thinking. Given the potential for a nonlinear shift in any of the areas below, a good red teamer will think through the possibilities, even when uncomfortable, alarming, or advocated by someone others simply dismiss out-of-hand